Corporations and institutions with substantial property holdings have been concerned about the financial effects potential environmental liabilities might have. This client owns many old industrial properties in the United States. From time to time, it has also leased parcels to other companies. For various reasons, including submitting insurance claims and selling properties, it needs to estimate whether a significant environmental risk may be present and, if so, what the potential cost of mitigating the risk might be.

What was common to these three cases was (a) there were small amounts of sampling, narrative, and mapped data for each property, (b) the data showed a difficult to quantify potential for environmental impairment, and (c) the client wanted to know what it would cost to know, with 90% confidence, whether there was a material liability.

Quantitative Decisions evaluated the initial data, identified and mapped the regions with greatest potential for contamination, and recommended the additional sampling necessary to achieve the client’s aims.

In two of the three cases our statistical analysis of the data led us to conclude there was material liability and to estimate its cost (with 90% confidence bounds, as requested by the client). In both cases further investigation has borne out both the expectations and the cost estimates. The cost estimates have been used to achieve favorable insurance claim settlements.